Fast Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 10:56 AM to 11:25 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 10:56 AM ET, Fast Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 61.7021. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:25 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

24.4657.790.94Sep 30, 10:56 AM ET11:25 AM ET
Projected Fast Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 10:56 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

24.4657.790.94Sep 30, 10:56 AM ET11:25 AM ET
Recorded Fast Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:56 AM ET61.7021
Projected value at 11:25 AM ET47.1592
Actual value at 11:25 AM ET54.0146
Projected change across the window-14.5429
Actual change across the window-7.68753
Bars moving the same direction17 of 27
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.89×

Reading this window

The projection called for Fast Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.89 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 63% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (11:23 AM ET), where they sat 0.49931 apart, and furthest at bar 19 (11:15 AM ET) with a gap of 31.8704. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (11:09 AM ET), a move of +37.3378. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:57 AM88.125371.6418-16.4836
611:02 AM72.706654.1176-18.5889
1211:08 AM67.371158.0645-9.30655
1811:14 AM59.477257.1429-2.33437
2411:20 AM54.427442.623-11.8045
2911:25 AM47.159254.0146+6.85536

About Fast Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The fast Stochastic applies less smoothing than the standard version, so it turns sooner and moves more sharply. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.