Fast Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 7:00 AM to 7:29 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 7:00 AM ET, Fast Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 88.9299. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:29 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

8.15350.0191.87Sep 30, 7:00 AM ET7:29 AM ET
Projected Fast Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 7:00 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

8.15350.0191.87Sep 30, 7:00 AM ET7:29 AM ET
Recorded Fast Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:00 AM ET88.9299
Projected value at 7:29 AM ET42.7613
Actual value at 7:29 AM ET18.1034
Projected change across the window-46.1686
Actual change across the window-70.8264
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading25 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.65×

Reading this window

The projection called for Fast Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.65 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 25 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 20 (7:19 AM ET), where they sat 6.54232 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (7:00 AM ET) with a gap of 66.0132. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (7:13 AM ET), a move of -45. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:01 AM27.602970.2509+42.648
67:06 AM32.939497.491+64.5516
127:12 AM48.384659.375+10.9904
187:18 AM50.324231.5789-18.7452
247:24 AM50.90677.56757-43.3392
297:29 AM42.761318.1034-24.6578

About Fast Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The fast Stochastic applies less smoothing than the standard version, so it turns sooner and moves more sharply. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.