Fast Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 6:20 AM to 6:49 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 6:20 AM ET, Fast Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 76.4706. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:49 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

5.30944.8484.38Sep 30, 6:20 AM ET6:49 AM ET
Projected Fast Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 6:20 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

5.30944.8484.38Sep 30, 6:20 AM ET6:49 AM ET
Recorded Fast Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:20 AM ET76.4706
Projected value at 6:49 AM ET31.634
Actual value at 6:49 AM ET5.82524
Projected change across the window-44.8366
Actual change across the window-70.6453
Bars moving the same direction19 of 28
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.63×

Reading this window

The projection called for Fast Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.63 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 68% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 11 (6:30 AM ET), where they sat 1.05987 apart, and furthest at bar 23 (6:43 AM ET) with a gap of 58.6667. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 24 (6:44 AM ET), a move of -75.651. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:21 AM31.049565.8824+34.8328
66:26 AM28.867618.1159-10.7517
126:32 AM29.04136.3229+7.28188
186:38 AM39.857244.3946+4.5374
246:44 AM29.863514.0351-15.8284
296:49 AM31.6345.82524-25.8088

About Fast Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The fast Stochastic applies less smoothing than the standard version, so it turns sooner and moves more sharply. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.