Fast Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 2:07 AM to 2:36 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 2:07 AM ET, Fast Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 2.5641. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:36 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

7.58344.9582.32Sep 30, 2:07 AM ET2:36 AM ET
Projected Fast Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 2:07 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

7.58344.9582.32Sep 30, 2:07 AM ET2:36 AM ET
Recorded Fast Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:07 AM ET2.5641
Projected value at 2:36 AM ET43.953
Actual value at 2:36 AM ET31.1475
Projected change across the window+41.3889
Actual change across the window+28.5834
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.45×

Reading this window

The projection called for Fast Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.45 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 17 (2:23 AM ET), where they sat 0.0185476 apart, and furthest at bar 11 (2:18 AM ET) with a gap of 48.3181. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 7 (2:14 AM ET), a move of +49.4624. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:08 AM36.332543.6782+7.34563
62:13 AM31.075531.1828+0.107276
122:19 AM38.237353.4247+15.1873
182:25 AM41.044764.1509+23.1062
242:31 AM41.910660.5042+18.5936
292:36 AM43.95331.1475-12.8055

About Fast Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The fast Stochastic applies less smoothing than the standard version, so it turns sooner and moves more sharply. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.