Fast Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 12:44 AM to 1:13 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 12:44 AM ET, Fast Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 6.09756. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:13 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

7.10345.4983.87Sep 30, 12:44 AM ET1:13 AM ET
Projected Fast Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 12:44 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

7.10345.4983.87Sep 30, 12:44 AM ET1:13 AM ET
Recorded Fast Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:44 AM ET6.09756
Projected value at 1:13 AM ET64.314
Actual value at 1:13 AM ET51.5385
Projected change across the window+58.2164
Actual change across the window+45.4409
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.28×

Reading this window

The projection called for Fast Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.28 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 14 (12:57 AM ET), where they sat 10.4967 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (12:44 AM ET) with a gap of 64.5976. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 11 (12:55 AM ET), a move of +54.6512. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:45 AM56.70397.23684-49.4671
612:50 AM61.97429.21053-52.7637
1212:56 AM72.082589.0244+16.9419
181:02 AM70.17949.71429-60.4651
241:08 AM64.325922.9299-41.396
291:13 AM64.31451.5385-12.7755

About Fast Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The fast Stochastic applies less smoothing than the standard version, so it turns sooner and moves more sharply. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.