Fast Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 2:23 AM to 2:52 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 2:23 AM ET, Fast Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 63.2287. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:52 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.7752.4492.1Sep 29, 2:23 AM ET2:52 AM ET
Projected Fast Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 2:23 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.7752.4492.1Sep 29, 2:23 AM ET2:52 AM ET
Recorded Fast Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:23 AM ET63.2287
Projected value at 2:52 AM ET44.542
Actual value at 2:52 AM ET52.8926
Projected change across the window-18.6867
Actual change across the window-10.3361
Bars moving the same direction17 of 28
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.81×

Reading this window

The projection called for Fast Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.81 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 61% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 10 (2:32 AM ET), where they sat 0.319839 apart, and furthest at bar 18 (2:41 AM ET) with a gap of 55.6545. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 12 (2:35 AM ET), a move of -55.7701. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:24 AM86.871855.6054-31.2664
62:29 AM79.769869.5906-10.1791
122:35 AM60.914931.5315-29.3834
182:41 AM63.10137.44681-55.6545
242:47 AM52.540742.1488-10.392
292:52 AM44.54252.8926+8.35053

About Fast Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The fast Stochastic applies less smoothing than the standard version, so it turns sooner and moves more sharply. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.