Fast Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 4:15 AM to 4:44 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 4:15 AM ET, Fast Stochastic %K on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 70.6667. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:44 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

8.8450.6592.45Sep 28, 4:15 AM ET4:44 AM ET
Projected Fast Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 4:15 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

8.8450.6592.45Sep 28, 4:15 AM ET4:44 AM ET
Recorded Fast Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:15 AM ET70.6667
Projected value at 4:44 AM ET45.315
Actual value at 4:44 AM ET91.8182
Projected change across the window-25.3516
Actual change across the window+21.1515
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading20 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.20×

Reading this window

The projection called for Fast Stochastic %K to fall, while it rose instead. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.20 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 20 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 12 (4:26 AM ET), where they sat 0.0346096 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (4:44 AM ET) with a gap of 46.5032. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 21 (4:36 AM ET), a move of +58.1992. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:16 AM72.246392.1569+19.9106
64:21 AM53.116889.2308+36.114
124:27 AM45.622144.8718-0.750302
184:33 AM44.935917.8082-27.1277
244:39 AM47.215941.4634-5.75247
294:44 AM45.31591.8182+46.5032

About Fast Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The fast Stochastic applies less smoothing than the standard version, so it turns sooner and moves more sharply. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.