Fast Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 7:45 PM to 8:14 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 26, 2026 at 7:45 PM ET, Fast Stochastic %K on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 68.1654. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:14 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

5.35245.0784.79Sep 26, 7:45 PM ET8:14 PM ET
Projected Fast Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 7:45 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

5.35245.0784.79Sep 26, 7:45 PM ET8:14 PM ET
Recorded Fast Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:45 PM ET68.1654
Projected value at 8:14 PM ET56.6262
Actual value at 8:14 PM ET49.7562
Projected change across the window-11.5392
Actual change across the window-18.4092
Bars moving the same direction16 of 26
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.63×

Reading this window

The projection called for Fast Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.63 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 20 (8:04 PM ET), where they sat 0.151487 apart, and furthest at bar 9 (7:54 PM ET) with a gap of 52.3489. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 12 (7:57 PM ET), a move of -63.586. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:46 PM26.017868.1654+42.1476
67:51 PM42.115814.5116-27.6042
127:57 PM59.707915.161-44.547
188:03 PM53.705154.8659+1.16077
248:09 PM55.158335.5359-19.6224
298:14 PM56.626249.7562-6.87002

About Fast Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The fast Stochastic applies less smoothing than the standard version, so it turns sooner and moves more sharply. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.