Fast Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 4, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 4, 2026, 6:20 PM to 6:49 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 4, 2026 at 6:20 PM ET, Fast Stochastic %K on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 77.4633. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:49 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

10.3342.574.68Sep 4, 6:20 PM ET6:49 PM ET
Projected Fast Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 6:20 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

10.3342.574.68Sep 4, 6:20 PM ET6:49 PM ET
Recorded Fast Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:20 PM ET77.4633
Projected value at 6:49 PM ET51.8209
Actual value at 6:49 PM ET28.0639
Projected change across the window-25.6424
Actual change across the window-49.3994
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.52×

Reading this window

The projection called for Fast Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.52 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (6:47 PM ET), where they sat 0.741906 apart, and furthest at bar 5 (6:25 PM ET) with a gap of 52.6532. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (6:33 PM ET), a move of -43.9495. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:21 PM75.294158.7717-16.5224
66:26 PM65.491813.3365-52.1553
126:32 PM53.191649.9617-3.22985
186:38 PM53.907862.6081+8.70035
246:44 PM54.033319.1055-34.9278
296:49 PM51.820928.0639-23.757

About Fast Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The fast Stochastic applies less smoothing than the standard version, so it turns sooner and moves more sharply. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.