Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 3:29 PM to 3:58 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 3:29 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 78.7678. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:58 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

12.8945.9478.99Sep 27, 3:29 PM ET3:58 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 3:29 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

12.8945.9478.99Sep 27, 3:29 PM ET3:58 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:29 PM ET78.7678
Projected value at 3:58 PM ET52.4643
Actual value at 3:58 PM ET26.5074
Projected change across the window-26.3035
Actual change across the window-52.2604
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.50×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.50 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 18 (3:46 PM ET), where they sat 0.0882866 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (3:29 PM ET) with a gap of 70.3199. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 2 (3:31 PM ET), a move of -27.0674. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:30 PM8.7051464.5589+55.8538
63:35 PM29.403968.0548+38.6509
123:41 PM50.60483.4292+32.8253
183:47 PM53.039854.5868+1.54691
243:53 PM53.964530.7482-23.2163
293:58 PM52.464326.5074-25.9569

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.