Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 27, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 27, 2026, 4:29 AM to 4:58 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 27, 2026 at 4:29 AM ET, Stochastic %K on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 0.0468677. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:58 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

5.69547.7589.81Sep 27, 4:29 AM ET4:58 AM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 4:29 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

5.69547.7589.81Sep 27, 4:29 AM ET4:58 AM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:29 AM ET0.0468677
Projected value at 4:58 AM ET48.6007
Actual value at 4:58 AM ET68.5143
Projected change across the window+48.5539
Actual change across the window+68.4674
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.71×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.71 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 7 (4:35 AM ET), where they sat 1.12897 apart, and furthest at bar 17 (4:46 AM ET) with a gap of 56.0799. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 28 (4:57 AM ET), a move of +19.5455. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:30 AM22.33383.24313-19.0907
64:35 AM23.398422.2694-1.12897
124:41 AM34.941363.4842+28.5429
184:47 AM42.177693.3688+51.1912
244:53 AM44.702565.7216+21.0191
294:58 AM48.600768.5143+19.9135

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.