Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 11:30 PM to 11:59 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 26, 2026 at 11:30 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 31.746. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:59 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

14.9149.984.89Sep 26, 11:30 PM ET11:59 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 11:30 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

14.9149.984.89Sep 26, 11:30 PM ET11:59 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:30 PM ET31.746
Projected value at 11:59 PM ET48.7437
Actual value at 11:59 PM ET55.0773
Projected change across the window+16.9977
Actual change across the window+23.3312
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.73×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.73 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 22 (11:51 PM ET), where they sat 0.343918 apart, and furthest at bar 27 (11:57 PM ET) with a gap of 39.9861. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (11:59 PM ET), a move of -25.1599. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:31 PM31.983419.6935-12.2899
611:36 PM61.349449.2269-12.1225
1211:42 PM60.507863.7039+3.19606
1811:48 PM47.443455.9529+8.50951
2411:54 PM48.537556.6787+8.14124
2911:59 PM48.743755.0773+6.33352

About Stochastic %K on a 1 minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.