Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 11:12 PM to 11:41 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 26, 2026 at 11:12 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 60.5309. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:41 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

21.3958.2295.04Sep 26, 11:12 PM ET11:41 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 11:12 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

21.3958.2295.04Sep 26, 11:12 PM ET11:41 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:12 PM ET60.5309
Projected value at 11:41 PM ET46.4801
Actual value at 11:41 PM ET35.9878
Projected change across the window-14.0508
Actual change across the window-24.543
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.57×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.57 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 18 (11:29 PM ET), where they sat 2.02083 apart, and furthest at bar 21 (11:33 PM ET) with a gap of 58.1225. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (11:25 PM ET), a move of -27.7028. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:13 PM41.652355.9529+14.3007
611:18 PM30.245147.0808+16.8357
1211:24 PM41.239555.0773+13.8378
1811:30 PM41.043759.032+17.9883
2411:36 PM40.628480.7905+40.1621
2911:41 PM46.480135.9878-10.4923

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.