Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 10:54 PM to 11:23 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 26, 2026 at 10:54 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 59.032. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:23 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

11.4652.9494.42Sep 26, 10:54 PM ET11:23 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 10:54 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

11.4652.9494.42Sep 26, 10:54 PM ET11:23 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:54 PM ET59.032
Projected value at 11:23 PM ET51.2729
Actual value at 11:23 PM ET51.1463
Projected change across the window-7.75909
Actual change across the window-7.88568
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.98×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.98 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (11:23 PM ET), where they sat 0.126592 apart, and furthest at bar 2 (10:56 PM ET) with a gap of 55.0058. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (10:55 PM ET), a move of +23.2928. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:55 PM35.714582.3248+46.6103
611:00 PM51.343380.7905+29.4472
1211:06 PM51.632.0982-19.5018
1811:12 PM47.243715.1528-32.0909
2411:18 PM50.543375.8901+25.3468
2911:23 PM51.272951.1463-0.126592

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.