Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 26, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 26, 2026, 7:53 PM to 8:22 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 26, 2026 at 7:53 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 69.8277. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 8:22 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

8.55745.5382.49Sep 26, 7:53 PM ET8:22 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 7:53 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

8.55745.5382.49Sep 26, 7:53 PM ET8:22 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:53 PM ET69.8277
Projected value at 8:22 PM ET59.7714
Actual value at 8:22 PM ET58.1901
Projected change across the window-10.0563
Actual change across the window-11.6376
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.86×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.86 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (8:20 PM ET), where they sat 0.00437246 apart, and furthest at bar 15 (8:08 PM ET) with a gap of 54.6831. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 17 (8:10 PM ET), a move of +26.2433. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:54 PM82.550966.5741-15.9768
67:59 PM78.758374.0577-4.70059
128:05 PM62.381327.875-34.5063
188:11 PM55.037139.3216-15.7156
248:17 PM58.803963.8773+5.07337
298:22 PM59.771458.1901-1.58134

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.