Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 5, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 5, 2026, 7:00 PM to 7:29 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 5, 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 78.8992. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:29 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

44.2967.9591.61Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET7:29 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 7:00 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

44.2967.9591.61Sep 5, 7:00 PM ET7:29 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:00 PM ET78.8992
Projected value at 7:29 PM ET56.6073
Actual value at 7:29 PM ET91.032
Projected change across the window-22.2918
Actual change across the window+12.1328
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.84×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall, while it rose instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.84 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 9 (7:08 PM ET), where they sat 1.7184 apart, and furthest at bar 3 (7:03 PM ET) with a gap of 40.8257. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 4 (7:04 PM ET), a move of -22.0791. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:01 PM41.209374.9203+33.7111
67:06 PM49.587545.379-4.20848
127:12 PM56.522369.1483+12.6261
187:18 PM58.526382.4968+23.9705
247:24 PM57.685166.6109+8.92581
297:29 PM56.607391.032+34.4246

About Stochastic %K on a 1 minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.