Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 4, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 4, 2026, 7:19 PM to 7:48 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 4, 2026 at 7:19 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 9.1451. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:48 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

13.7548.0582.34Sep 4, 7:19 PM ET7:48 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 7:19 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

13.7548.0582.34Sep 4, 7:19 PM ET7:48 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 7:19 PM ET9.1451
Projected value at 7:48 PM ET52.7627
Actual value at 7:48 PM ET86.9462
Projected change across the window+43.6176
Actual change across the window+77.8011
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.56×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.56 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 6 (7:24 PM ET), where they sat 1.53925 apart, and furthest at bar 24 (7:43 PM ET) with a gap of 38.172. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 27 (7:46 PM ET), a move of +24.1298. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
17:20 PM34.605822.9459-11.6599
67:25 PM45.195637.3881-7.80758
127:31 PM53.682968.8819+15.199
187:37 PM53.128946.7284-6.40043
247:43 PM52.629214.4573-38.172
297:48 PM52.762786.9462+34.1835

About Stochastic %K on a 1 minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.