Stochastic %K prediction vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1 minute chart, September 4, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 4, 2026, 6:21 PM to 6:50 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 4, 2026 at 6:21 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the BTCUSD 1 minute chart read 75.804. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:50 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

19.9746.1372.29Sep 4, 6:21 PM ET6:50 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 6:21 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

19.9746.1372.29Sep 4, 6:21 PM ET6:50 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:21 PM ET75.804
Projected value at 6:50 PM ET52.2266
Actual value at 6:50 PM ET36.6758
Projected change across the window-23.5774
Actual change across the window-39.1282
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.60×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.60 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (6:43 PM ET), where they sat 0.000811227 apart, and furthest at bar 6 (6:27 PM ET) with a gap of 41.5858. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 4 (6:25 PM ET), a move of -18.4144. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:22 PM66.422968.3239+1.90101
66:27 PM58.043516.4578-41.5858
126:33 PM53.148327.1945-25.9538
186:39 PM56.375757.7173+1.34161
246:45 PM52.384331.5861-20.7982
296:50 PM52.226636.6758-15.5508

About Stochastic %K on a 1 minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.