Stochastic %K forecast vs outcome — BTCUSD, 1-minute chart, September 4, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 4, 2026, 6:06 PM to 6:35 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 4, 2026 at 6:06 PM ET, Stochastic %K on the BTCUSD 1-minute chart read 24.0319. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:35 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

11.8740.2368.6Sep 4, 6:06 PM ET6:35 PM ET
Projected Stochastic %K path, 30 bars from 6:06 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

11.8740.2368.6Sep 4, 6:06 PM ET6:35 PM ET
Recorded Stochastic %K values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:06 PM ET24.0319
Projected value at 6:35 PM ET54.6105
Actual value at 6:35 PM ET8.10749
Projected change across the window+30.5785
Actual change across the window-15.9244
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading21 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.92×

Reading this window

The projection called for Stochastic %K to rise, while it fell instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.92 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 21 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 6 (6:11 PM ET), where they sat 1.29887 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (6:35 PM ET) with a gap of 46.503. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (6:07 PM ET), a move of +13.794. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:07 PM68.163837.8259-30.3379
66:12 PM50.637157.5775+6.94039
126:18 PM54.06146.3589-7.70209
186:24 PM52.448416.1092-36.3392
246:30 PM54.381830.0354-24.3464
296:35 PM54.61058.10749-46.503

About Stochastic %K on a 1-minute chart

The Stochastic oscillator places the latest close within its recent high-low range, which is why it oscillates between fixed bounds rather than trending. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of BTCUSD activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.