MACD prediction vs outcome — MYM, 1 minute chart, October 13, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 13, 2026, 10:33 AM to 11:02 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 13, 2026 at 10:33 AM ET, MACD on the MYM 1 minute chart read -43.3751. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:02 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-39.8-13.1413.51Oct 13, 10:33 AM ET11:02 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 10:33 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-39.8-13.1413.51Oct 13, 10:33 AM ET11:02 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:33 AM ET-43.3751
Projected value at 11:02 AM ET12.8444
Actual value at 11:02 AM ET16.8086
Projected change across the window+56.2195
Actual change across the window+60.1837
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.93×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.93 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 13 (10:45 AM ET), where they sat 0.167565 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (10:33 AM ET) with a gap of 45.091. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 2 (10:35 AM ET), a move of +9.50839. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:34 AM2.29965-36.4203-38.72
610:39 AM4.49698-10.2227-14.7196
1210:45 AM-1.70433-1.87189-0.167565
1810:51 AM7.673312.1187+4.44542
2410:57 AM11.304317.0898+5.78551
2911:02 AM12.844416.8086+3.96425

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of MYM activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.