MACD prediction vs outcome — MYM, 1 minute chart, October 12, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 12, 2026, 8:55 AM to 9:24 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 12, 2026 at 8:55 AM ET, MACD on the MYM 1 minute chart read -18.7201. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:24 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-17.53-8.6310.2632Oct 12, 8:55 AM ET9:24 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 8:55 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-17.53-8.6310.2632Oct 12, 8:55 AM ET9:24 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:55 AM ET-18.7201
Projected value at 9:24 AM ET-9.89221
Actual value at 9:24 AM ET-2.2702
Projected change across the window+8.82793
Actual change across the window+16.4499
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.54×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.54 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 4 (8:58 AM ET), where they sat 0.555354 apart, and furthest at bar 18 (9:13 AM ET) with a gap of 11.6287. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 17 (9:12 AM ET), a move of +2.07924. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:56 AM-16.0491-17.3816-1.33254
69:01 AM-18.5135-14.1399+4.37355
129:07 AM-14.7196-7.43893+7.28063
189:13 AM-11.8595-0.230849+11.6287
249:19 AM-7.530360.285335+7.81569
299:24 AM-9.89221-2.2702+7.62201

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of MYM activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.