MACD prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 59 minute chart, September 22, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 22, 2026, 11:06 AM to 3:37 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 22, 2026 at 11:06 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 59 minute chart read -7.87482. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:37 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-7.108-1.44.308Sep 22, 11:06 AM ET3:37 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 11:06 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-7.108-1.44.308Sep 22, 11:06 AM ET3:37 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:06 AM ET-7.87482
Projected value at 3:37 PM ET-1.63705
Actual value at 3:37 PM ET0.222594
Projected change across the window+6.23777
Actual change across the window+8.09741
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.77×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.77 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 6 (4:01 PM ET), where they sat 0.386134 apart, and furthest at bar 17 (3:49 AM ET) with a gap of 7.58989. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 3 (2:03 PM ET), a move of +2.5206. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:05 PM-5.03955-7.85959-2.82004
65:00 PM-4.61798-3.09878+1.51921
1210:54 PM-3.313492.76587+6.07936
184:48 AM-2.407745.01276+7.4205
2410:42 AM-1.536422.35626+3.89268
293:37 PM-1.637050.222594+1.85965

About MACD on a 59 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 59 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 29.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 29.5 hours of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.