MACD prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 59 minute chart, September 22, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 22, 2026, 10:05 AM to 2:36 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 22, 2026 at 10:05 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 59 minute chart read 12.9828. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:36 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

1.2047.49113.78Sep 22, 10:05 AM ET2:36 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 10:05 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

1.2047.49113.78Sep 22, 10:05 AM ET2:36 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:05 AM ET12.9828
Projected value at 2:36 PM ET1.68623
Actual value at 2:36 PM ET0.360139
Projected change across the window-11.2966
Actual change across the window-12.6227
Bars moving the same direction23 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.89×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.89 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 79% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (12:38 PM ET), where they sat 0.104424 apart, and furthest at bar 11 (8:54 PM ET) with a gap of 6.14994. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 18 (3:47 AM ET), a move of -2.01584. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:04 AM13.26613.9707+0.70471
63:59 PM9.9075114.5596+4.65212
129:53 PM6.6703612.3236+5.65322
183:47 AM4.355227.18251+2.8273
249:41 AM2.875593.58899+0.713394
292:36 PM1.686230.360139-1.32609

About MACD on a 59 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 59 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 29.5 hours of trading, so the window above describes 29.5 hours of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.