MACD prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, October 10, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 10, 2026, 12:04 PM to 12:33 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 10, 2026 at 12:04 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read -2.34704. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:33 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-9.062-4.4140.235Oct 10, 12:04 PM ET12:33 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 12:04 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-9.062-4.4140.235Oct 10, 12:04 PM ET12:33 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:04 PM ET-2.34704
Projected value at 12:33 PM ET-7.11122
Actual value at 12:33 PM ET0.8593
Projected change across the window-4.76417
Actual change across the window+3.20635
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.49×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall, while it rose instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.49 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (12:26 PM ET), where they sat 2.90204 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (12:33 PM ET) with a gap of 7.97052. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (12:33 PM ET), a move of +1.53831. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:05 PM-9.07816-2.56121+6.51695
612:10 PM-9.29493-4.36905+4.92588
1212:16 PM-9.1799-4.20529+4.97461
1812:22 PM-8.38335-4.85275+3.5306
2412:28 PM-8.96304-4.70358+4.25947
2912:33 PM-7.111220.8593+7.97052

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.