MACD prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, October 9, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 9, 2026, 12:15 PM to 12:44 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 9, 2026 at 12:15 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read -6.13388. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:44 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-5.1932.56710.33Oct 9, 12:15 PM ET12:44 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 12:15 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-5.1932.56710.33Oct 9, 12:15 PM ET12:44 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:15 PM ET-6.13388
Projected value at 12:44 PM ET1.13622
Actual value at 12:44 PM ET3.20968
Projected change across the window+7.2701
Actual change across the window+9.34355
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading28 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.78×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.78 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 28 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 27 (12:41 PM ET), where they sat 0.495576 apart, and furthest at bar 6 (12:21 PM ET) with a gap of 13.5115. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 12 (12:27 PM ET), a move of +2.12634. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:16 PM6.7879-6.06063-12.8485
612:21 PM8.55624-4.95524-13.5115
1212:27 PM11.373.28229-8.08771
1812:33 PM9.805465.0216-4.78386
2412:39 PM6.082552.91726-3.16529
2912:44 PM1.136223.20968+2.07345

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.