MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 2, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 2, 2026, 3:12 PM to 3:41 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 2, 2026 at 3:12 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -37.5735. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:41 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-35.13-16.941.246Oct 2, 3:12 PM ET3:41 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 3:12 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-35.13-16.941.246Oct 2, 3:12 PM ET3:41 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:12 PM ET-37.5735
Projected value at 3:41 PM ET-0.709991
Actual value at 3:41 PM ET3.68845
Projected change across the window+36.8635
Actual change across the window+41.262
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.89×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.89 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 26 (3:37 PM ET), where they sat 0.725103 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (3:12 PM ET) with a gap of 35.151. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (3:13 PM ET), a move of +3.74238. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:13 PM-2.64697-33.8311-31.1842
63:18 PM-2.8314-26.3321-23.5007
123:24 PM-2.21569-19.1329-16.9172
183:30 PM-1.56701-14.5107-12.9437
243:36 PM-1.036230.265704+1.30193
293:41 PM-0.7099913.68845+4.39844

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.