MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 1, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 1, 2026, 6:37 PM to 7:06 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 1, 2026 at 6:37 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 41.9897. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:06 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

3.79224.5445.29Oct 1, 6:37 PM ET7:06 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 6:37 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

3.79224.5445.29Oct 1, 6:37 PM ET7:06 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:37 PM ET41.9897
Projected value at 7:06 PM ET1.03206
Actual value at 7:06 PM ET5.55635
Projected change across the window-40.9576
Actual change across the window-36.4334
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading23 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.12×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.12 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 23 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (7:06 PM ET), where they sat 4.52429 apart, and furthest at bar 4 (6:41 PM ET) with a gap of 44.5334. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 14 (6:51 PM ET), a move of -3.83676. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:38 PM3.7739444.212+40.4381
66:43 PM3.3588547.8784+44.5195
126:49 PM2.461936.705+34.2431
186:55 PM1.6749718.2094+16.5344
247:01 PM1.167911.6902+10.5223
297:06 PM1.032065.55635+4.52429

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.