MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 1, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 1, 2026, 6:34 PM to 7:03 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 1, 2026 at 6:34 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 45.6163. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:03 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

5.04325.2145.37Oct 1, 6:34 PM ET7:03 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 6:34 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

5.04325.2145.37Oct 1, 6:34 PM ET7:03 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:34 PM ET45.6163
Projected value at 7:03 PM ET4.66343
Actual value at 7:03 PM ET2.33524
Projected change across the window-40.9529
Actual change across the window-43.281
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.95×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.95 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 28 (7:01 PM ET), where they sat 0.480397 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (6:35 PM ET) with a gap of 43.7689. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 12 (6:46 PM ET), a move of -3.83676. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:35 PM4.2744348.0433+43.7689
66:40 PM6.6592341.4368+34.7776
126:46 PM7.2453229.8473+22.602
186:52 PM6.5521415.1259+8.57373
246:58 PM5.492028.88599+3.39396
297:03 PM4.663432.33524-2.32819

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.