MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 1, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 1, 2026, 2:10 PM to 2:39 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 1, 2026 at 2:10 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -27.2958. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:39 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-40.6-24.73-8.863Oct 1, 2:10 PM ET2:39 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 2:10 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-40.6-24.73-8.863Oct 1, 2:10 PM ET2:39 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:10 PM ET-27.2958
Projected value at 2:39 PM ET-13.4164
Actual value at 2:39 PM ET-6.73153
Projected change across the window+13.8795
Actual change across the window+20.5643
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.67×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.67 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 20 (2:29 PM ET), where they sat 0.292543 apart, and furthest at bar 12 (2:22 PM ET) with a gap of 18.3506. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 10 (2:20 PM ET), a move of +7.44472. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:11 PM-28.1718-32.2303-4.05846
62:16 PM-29.4767-37.5492-8.07251
122:22 PM-27.1054-8.75478+18.3506
182:28 PM-23.5459-19.3529+4.19294
242:34 PM-17.8954-17.1711+0.724328
292:39 PM-13.4164-6.73153+6.68483

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.