MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 1, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 1, 2026, 8:31 AM to 9:00 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 1, 2026 at 8:31 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -16.4514. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 9:00 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-15.22-6.093.044Oct 1, 8:31 AM ET9:00 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 8:31 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-15.22-6.093.044Oct 1, 8:31 AM ET9:00 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 8:31 AM ET-16.4514
Projected value at 9:00 AM ET-4.09623
Actual value at 9:00 AM ET-2.2242
Projected change across the window+12.3552
Actual change across the window+14.2272
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.87×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.87 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 22 (8:52 AM ET), where they sat 0.913483 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (8:31 AM ET) with a gap of 12.1186. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 23 (8:54 AM ET), a move of +3.72912. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
18:32 AM-4.21845-14.1408-9.92238
68:37 AM-4.12902-13.8543-9.72524
128:43 AM-4.25706-11.9846-7.72749
188:49 AM-4.51417-9.12403-4.60986
248:55 AM-3.845774.10286+7.94863
299:00 AM-4.09623-2.2242+1.87202

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.