MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 1, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 1, 2026, 5:31 AM to 6:00 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 1, 2026 at 5:31 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 16.5415. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:00 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

8.73512.3916.05Oct 1, 5:31 AM ET6:00 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 5:31 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

8.73512.3916.05Oct 1, 5:31 AM ET6:00 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:31 AM ET16.5415
Projected value at 6:00 AM ET8.55787
Actual value at 6:00 AM ET10.1062
Projected change across the window-7.98365
Actual change across the window-6.43534
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.24×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.24 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 30 (6:00 AM ET), where they sat 1.54831 apart, and furthest at bar 21 (5:52 AM ET) with a gap of 6.98307. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 27 (5:58 AM ET), a move of -1.58793. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:32 AM10.221116.3302+6.10906
65:37 AM9.5696114.8989+5.32932
125:43 AM8.5253313.5208+4.99549
185:49 AM8.4409114.2746+5.83372
245:55 AM8.3201614.4138+6.09365
296:00 AM8.5578710.1062+1.54831

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.