MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, October 1, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers October 1, 2026, 4:58 AM to 5:27 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On October 1, 2026 at 4:58 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 9.16787. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 5:27 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

2.2186.22810.24Oct 1, 4:58 AM ET5:27 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 4:58 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

2.2186.22810.24Oct 1, 4:58 AM ET5:27 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 4:58 AM ET9.16787
Projected value at 5:27 AM ET1.67897
Actual value at 5:27 AM ET2.60938
Projected change across the window-7.4889
Actual change across the window-6.55849
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.14×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.14 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 26 (5:23 AM ET), where they sat 0.143991 apart, and furthest at bar 5 (5:03 AM ET) with a gap of 3.81879. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 23 (5:21 AM ET), a move of -1.10481. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
14:59 AM6.458318.6822+2.2239
65:04 AM6.8166510.3022+3.48552
125:10 AM5.528276.5611+1.03283
185:16 AM3.884025.40371+1.51969
245:22 AM3.210143.7517+0.541561
295:27 AM1.678972.60938+0.930413

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.