MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 11:44 PM to 12:13 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 11:44 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 13.2146. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:13 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-0.49076.15212.79Sep 30, 11:44 PM ET12:13 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 11:44 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-0.49076.15212.79Sep 30, 11:44 PM ET12:13 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 11:44 PM ET13.2146
Projected value at 12:13 AM ET0.81903
Actual value at 12:13 AM ET-1.38287
Projected change across the window-12.3956
Actual change across the window-14.5975
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading26 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.85×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.85 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 26 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 25 (12:08 AM ET), where they sat 0.273551 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (11:44 PM ET) with a gap of 11.7785. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (11:52 PM ET), a move of -1.5416. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:45 PM1.904413.5534+11.649
611:50 PM2.8131211.6177+8.80459
1211:56 PM2.516356.5049+3.98855
1812:02 AM1.795594.3391+2.54351
2412:08 AM1.169911.44346+0.273551
2912:13 AM0.81903-1.38287-2.2019

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.