MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 3:37 PM to 4:06 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 3:37 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 7.70991. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 4:06 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-4.1331.7127.556Sep 30, 3:37 PM ET4:06 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 3:37 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-4.1331.7127.556Sep 30, 3:37 PM ET4:06 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 3:37 PM ET7.70991
Projected value at 4:06 PM ET0.363456
Actual value at 4:06 PM ET-0.185876
Projected change across the window-7.34645
Actual change across the window-7.89579
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.93×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.93 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 20 (3:56 PM ET), where they sat 0.0305487 apart, and furthest at bar 11 (3:48 PM ET) with a gap of 6.61755. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (3:45 PM ET), a move of -2.34863. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
13:38 PM2.948257.67848+4.73023
63:43 PM2.318864.91018+2.59132
123:49 PM1.47832-4.91812-6.39644
183:55 PM0.942660.733067-0.209593
244:01 PM0.6790610.42862-0.250441
294:06 PM0.363456-0.185876-0.549333

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.