MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 2:50 PM to 3:19 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 2:50 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 3.38695. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:19 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-9.2490.621610.49Sep 30, 2:50 PM ET3:19 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 2:50 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-9.2490.621610.49Sep 30, 2:50 PM ET3:19 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:50 PM ET3.38695
Projected value at 3:19 PM ET-6.0942
Actual value at 3:19 PM ET11.8183
Projected change across the window-9.48115
Actual change across the window+8.43136
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading23 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.12×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall, while it rose instead. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.12 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 23 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 14 (3:03 PM ET), where they sat 0.626052 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (3:19 PM ET) with a gap of 17.9125. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 2 (2:52 PM ET), a move of -2.82599. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:51 PM-6.491652.27571+8.76737
62:56 PM-9.87502-5.18537+4.68965
123:02 PM-10.2028-8.2496+1.95318
183:08 PM-8.082430.0911383+8.17357
243:14 PM-6.294465.88993+12.1844
293:19 PM-6.094211.8183+17.9125

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.