MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 2:49 PM to 3:18 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 2:49 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 2.27571. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 3:18 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-8.8710.822910.52Sep 30, 2:49 PM ET3:18 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 2:49 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-8.8710.822910.52Sep 30, 2:49 PM ET3:18 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:49 PM ET2.27571
Projected value at 3:18 PM ET-6.08485
Actual value at 3:18 PM ET11.128
Projected change across the window-8.36057
Actual change across the window+8.8523
Bars moving the same direction22 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading21 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.94×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall, while it rose instead. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.94 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 76% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 21 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 13 (3:01 PM ET), where they sat 0.636478 apart, and furthest at bar 28 (3:17 PM ET) with a gap of 17.9419. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (2:50 PM ET), a move of -2.82599. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:50 PM-5.66195-0.550278+5.11167
62:55 PM-9.37133-4.27841+5.09292
123:01 PM-9.90456-9.26808+0.636478
183:07 PM-8.151691.32677+9.47846
243:13 PM-6.394967.41086+13.8058
293:18 PM-6.0848511.128+17.2129

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.