MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 2:10 PM to 2:39 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 2:10 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 22.065. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:39 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

3.36517.6131.86Sep 30, 2:10 PM ET2:39 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 2:10 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

3.36517.6131.86Sep 30, 2:10 PM ET2:39 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 2:10 PM ET22.065
Projected value at 2:39 PM ET3.71393
Actual value at 2:39 PM ET7.31149
Projected change across the window-18.3511
Actual change across the window-14.7535
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.24×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.24 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 25 (2:34 PM ET), where they sat 0.273742 apart, and furthest at bar 5 (2:15 PM ET) with a gap of 29.6613. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 13 (2:23 PM ET), a move of -4.08815. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
12:11 PM2.018526.0895+24.071
62:16 PM4.2911532.6618+28.3706
122:22 PM5.1918618.4376+13.2458
182:28 PM4.38516.42469+2.03959
242:34 PM3.879873.60613-0.273742
292:39 PM3.713937.31149+3.59756

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.