MACD prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 1:38 PM to 2:07 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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Educational purposes only — predictions are not certainties or financial advice.

On September 30, 2026 at 1:38 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read 7.17505. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 2:07 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-7.6563.28114.22Sep 30, 1:38 PM ET2:07 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 1:38 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-7.6563.28114.22Sep 30, 1:38 PM ET2:07 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:38 PM ET7.17505
Projected value at 2:07 PM ET-5.86989
Actual value at 2:07 PM ET15.6867
Projected change across the window-13.0449
Actual change across the window+8.5117
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading18 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.53×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall, while it rose instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.53 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 18 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 15 (1:52 PM ET), where they sat 2.29978 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (2:07 PM ET) with a gap of 21.5566. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 8 (1:46 PM ET), a move of -6.83708. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:39 PM-6.981828.7269+15.7087
61:44 PM-8.665975.36198+14.0279
121:50 PM-8.75401-3.56892+5.1851
181:56 PM-7.527-0.78021+6.74679
242:02 PM-6.4996110.8875+17.3871
292:07 PM-5.8698915.6867+21.5566

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.