MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 12:30 PM to 12:59 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 30, 2026 at 12:30 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 17.9903. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 12:59 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-10.043.09216.23Sep 30, 12:30 PM ET12:59 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 12:30 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-10.043.09216.23Sep 30, 12:30 PM ET12:59 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:30 PM ET17.9903
Projected value at 12:59 PM ET-7.03847
Actual value at 12:59 PM ET-0.345379
Projected change across the window-25.0287
Actual change across the window-18.3356
Bars moving the same direction24 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.37×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.37 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 83% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 23 (12:52 PM ET), where they sat 5.17061 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (12:30 PM ET) with a gap of 24.3835. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (12:31 PM ET), a move of -7.45906. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:31 PM-7.5331110.5312+18.0643
612:36 PM-11.18-0.00174154+11.1783
1212:42 PM-11.427-4.3493+7.07772
1812:48 PM-10.0406-3.41022+6.63035
2412:54 PM-7.92828-2.21037+5.7179
2912:59 PM-7.03847-0.345379+6.6931

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.