MACD prediction vs outcome — Micro E mini Nasdaq 100, 1 minute chart, September 30, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 30, 2026, 5:52 AM to 6:21 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

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On September 30, 2026 at 5:52 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 1 minute chart read -4.01705. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:21 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-8.466-2.5393.389Sep 30, 5:52 AM ET6:21 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 5:52 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-8.466-2.5393.389Sep 30, 5:52 AM ET6:21 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 5:52 AM ET-4.01705
Projected value at 6:21 AM ET-0.304076
Actual value at 6:21 AM ET-9.26224
Projected change across the window+3.71297
Actual change across the window-5.24519
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading20 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.71×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise, while it fell instead. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.71 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 20 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 6 (5:57 AM ET), where they sat 0.170667 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (6:21 AM ET) with a gap of 8.95816. The largest single bar change in the recorded values came at bar 18 (6:10 AM ET), a move of -2.41828. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar by bar read out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
15:53 AM-2.82098-3.4803-0.659315
65:58 AM-1.91783-0.983262+0.934565
126:04 AM-1.197891.92328+3.12117
186:10 AM-0.660097-0.349433+0.310664
246:16 AM-0.613195-7.38337-6.77018
296:21 AM-0.304076-9.26224-8.95816

About MACD on a 1 minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1 minute timeframe a 30 bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Questions traders ask

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.