MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 10:59 PM to 11:28 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 10:59 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -1.66671. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:28 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-5.729-2.881-0.03222Sep 29, 10:59 PM ET11:28 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 10:59 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-5.729-2.881-0.03222Sep 29, 10:59 PM ET11:28 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:59 PM ET-1.66671
Projected value at 11:28 PM ET-3.89513
Actual value at 11:28 PM ET0.350348
Projected change across the window-2.22842
Actual change across the window+2.01706
Bars moving the same direction23 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading27 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.10×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall, while it rose instead. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.10 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 79% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 27 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 26 (11:24 PM ET), where they sat 0.0563472 apart, and furthest at bar 29 (11:28 PM ET) with a gap of 4.24548. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 29 (11:28 PM ET), a move of +1.45292. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:00 PM-1.79342-1.718+0.0754206
611:05 PM-4.70894-2.80839+1.90055
1211:11 PM-5.50344-4.55775+0.945689
1811:17 PM-5.04001-5.39846-0.358446
2411:23 PM-4.50026-4.96764-0.467382
2911:28 PM-3.895130.350348+4.24548

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.