MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 1:10 PM to 1:39 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 1:10 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 0.835746. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:39 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-9.526-4.6710.1837Sep 29, 1:10 PM ET1:39 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 1:10 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-9.526-4.6710.1837Sep 29, 1:10 PM ET1:39 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:10 PM ET0.835746
Projected value at 1:39 PM ET-6.63504
Actual value at 1:39 PM ET-7.78709
Projected change across the window-7.47078
Actual change across the window-8.62283
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.87×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.87 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 10 (1:19 PM ET), where they sat 0.428124 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (1:10 PM ET) with a gap of 5.59977. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 2 (1:12 PM ET), a move of -1.75695. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:11 PM-5.12015-0.405806+4.71434
61:16 PM-6.7338-5.44625+1.28755
121:22 PM-7.16686-8.16207-0.995212
181:28 PM-7.4722-8.78703-1.31483
241:34 PM-6.81391-9.28709-2.47318
291:39 PM-6.63504-7.78709-1.15205

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.