MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 1:02 PM to 1:31 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 1:02 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -6.55808. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:31 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-10.74-8.372-6.003Sep 29, 1:02 PM ET1:31 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 1:02 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-10.74-8.372-6.003Sep 29, 1:02 PM ET1:31 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 1:02 PM ET-6.55808
Projected value at 1:31 PM ET-7.70313
Actual value at 1:31 PM ET-5.68445
Projected change across the window-1.14505
Actual change across the window+0.873635
Bars moving the same direction19 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading24 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.31×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall, while it rose instead. The projection overshot: it called for 1.31 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 66% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 24 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 15 (1:16 PM ET), where they sat 0.0664866 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (1:02 PM ET) with a gap of 2.56537. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 1 (1:03 PM ET), a move of -1.00415. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
11:03 PM-9.5595-7.56224+1.99727
61:08 PM-10.8274-8.54852+2.27883
121:14 PM-10.2096-9.28943+0.920178
181:20 PM-9.17661-8.02634+1.15026
241:26 PM-8.2468-5.81189+2.43491
291:31 PM-7.70313-5.68445+2.01868

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.