MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 10:59 AM to 11:28 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 10:59 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 8.91611. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 11:28 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

1.6135.0358.457Sep 29, 10:59 AM ET11:28 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 10:59 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

1.6135.0358.457Sep 29, 10:59 AM ET11:28 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:59 AM ET8.91611
Projected value at 11:28 AM ET2.36578
Actual value at 11:28 AM ET4.13959
Projected change across the window-6.55032
Actual change across the window-4.77652
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.37×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The projection overshot: it called for 1.37 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 25 (11:23 AM ET), where they sat 0.547529 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (11:00 AM ET) with a gap of 4.13879. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 4 (11:03 AM ET), a move of -0.945804. The projected path stayed on one side of the recorded values for the whole window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
111:00 AM4.150878.28966+4.13879
611:05 AM1.861595.81644+3.95486
1211:11 AM1.173025.09388+3.92086
1811:17 AM1.406864.80435+3.39749
2411:23 AM1.960892.50841+0.547529
2911:28 AM2.365784.13959+1.77381

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.