MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 10:10 AM to 10:39 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 10:10 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 9.26517. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:39 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-3.7062.3718.449Sep 29, 10:10 AM ET10:39 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 10:10 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-3.7062.3718.449Sep 29, 10:10 AM ET10:39 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:10 AM ET9.26517
Projected value at 10:39 AM ET-0.316453
Actual value at 10:39 AM ET-4.52228
Projected change across the window-9.58162
Actual change across the window-13.7875
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.69×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The market travelled further than projected — the projection covered only 0.69 times the realised distance. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 27 (10:36 AM ET), where they sat 0.0491351 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (10:10 AM ET) with a gap of 8.59938. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 27 (10:37 AM ET), a move of -1.91692. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:11 AM0.06099898.13555+8.07455
610:16 AM-1.502444.4838+5.98624
1210:22 AM-1.878552.33723+4.21578
1810:28 AM-1.532573.40412+4.93668
2410:34 AM-1.18291.71676+2.89966
2910:39 AM-0.316453-4.52228-4.20583

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.