MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 29, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 29, 2026, 12:32 AM to 1:01 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 29, 2026 at 12:32 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -11.9475. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 1:01 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-14.61-7.72-0.8353Sep 29, 12:32 AM ET1:01 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 12:32 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-14.61-7.72-0.8353Sep 29, 12:32 AM ET1:01 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 12:32 AM ET-11.9475
Projected value at 1:01 AM ET-3.83448
Actual value at 1:01 AM ET-3.17773
Projected change across the window+8.11301
Actual change across the window+8.76976
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading18 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.93×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.93 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 18 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 17 (12:48 AM ET), where they sat 0.0153986 apart, and furthest at bar 7 (12:39 AM ET) with a gap of 8.45515. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 16 (12:48 AM ET), a move of +2.68979. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
112:33 AM-5.47366-13.5504-8.07671
612:38 AM-7.11594-15.5297-8.4138
1212:44 AM-6.46938-11.5722-5.10278
1812:50 AM-5.62147-0.986624+4.63484
2412:56 AM-4.61048-0.590237+4.02024
291:01 AM-3.83448-3.17773+0.656751

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.