MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 10:16 PM to 10:45 PM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 10:16 PM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read 13.0185. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 10:45 PM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-4.3233.80211.93Sep 28, 10:16 PM ET10:45 PM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 10:16 PM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-4.3233.80211.93Sep 28, 10:16 PM ET10:45 PM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 10:16 PM ET13.0185
Projected value at 10:45 PM ET-0.561037
Actual value at 10:45 PM ET-2.77191
Projected change across the window-13.5795
Actual change across the window-15.7904
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading30 of 30
Projected move relative to actual0.86×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to fall across the window, and it fell. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 0.86 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 30 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 11 (10:26 PM ET), where they sat 0.205689 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (10:16 PM ET) with a gap of 10.4051. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 10 (10:26 PM ET), a move of -2.67601. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
110:17 PM2.7365212.0873+9.35075
610:22 PM2.499038.30143+5.8024
1210:28 PM1.46468-0.99687-2.46155
1810:34 PM0.75581-0.724875-1.48068
2410:40 PM0.117729-5.32521-5.44294
2910:45 PM-0.561037-2.77191-2.21087

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.