MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 6:31 AM to 7:00 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 6:31 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -11.4231. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 7:00 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-13.76-5.4612.838Sep 28, 6:31 AM ET7:00 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 6:31 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-13.76-5.4612.838Sep 28, 6:31 AM ET7:00 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:31 AM ET-11.4231
Projected value at 7:00 AM ET0.335523
Actual value at 7:00 AM ET-0.584797
Projected change across the window+11.7586
Actual change across the window+10.8383
Bars moving the same direction18 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading19 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.08×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.08 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 62% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 19 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 18 (6:48 AM ET), where they sat 0.348237 apart, and furthest at bar 6 (6:37 AM ET) with a gap of 11.6586. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 16 (6:47 AM ET), a move of +2.10738. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:32 AM-3.64528-12.4575-8.81221
66:37 AM-3.05548-14.714-11.6586
126:43 AM-1.81504-10.0356-8.22054
186:49 AM-0.5796450.672024+1.25167
246:55 AM0.195167-0.201951-0.397118
297:00 AM0.335523-0.584797-0.920321

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.