MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 6:26 AM to 6:55 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 6:26 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -14.7637. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:55 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-13.66-5.4062.845Sep 28, 6:26 AM ET6:55 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 6:26 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-13.66-5.4062.845Sep 28, 6:26 AM ET6:55 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:26 AM ET-14.7637
Projected value at 6:55 AM ET0.115044
Actual value at 6:55 AM ET-1.80456
Projected change across the window+14.8788
Actual change across the window+12.9592
Bars moving the same direction21 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.15×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The two moves were close in size: the projection covered 1.15 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 72% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 27 (6:52 AM ET), where they sat 0.135969 apart, and furthest at bar 1 (6:27 AM ET) with a gap of 11.7583. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 11 (6:37 AM ET), a move of +2.10738. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:27 AM-2.95572-14.714-11.7583
66:32 AM-1.75765-11.0276-9.26991
126:38 AM-1.03514-1.22462-0.18948
186:44 AM-0.4626420.576469+1.03911
246:50 AM0.103085-0.584797-0.687882
296:55 AM0.115044-1.80456-1.9196

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.