MACD forecast vs outcome — Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100, 1-minute chart, September 28, 2026

Educational reference. Data covers September 28, 2026, 6:25 AM to 6:54 AM ET. This window has closed; every value below already printed.

On September 28, 2026 at 6:25 AM ET, MACD on the Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 1-minute chart read -14.714. The model projected the next 30 bars from that point. The window ran to 6:54 AM ET and has since closed, so the projection and the outcome can be placed side by side.

What was projected

-13.61-5.3812.848Sep 28, 6:25 AM ET6:54 AM ET
Projected MACD path, 30 bars from 6:25 AM ET. Dashed line marks the reading at the start of the window.

What actually printed

-13.61-5.3812.848Sep 28, 6:25 AM ET6:54 AM ET
Recorded MACD values over the same 30 bars.

The two paths, side by side

Reading at 6:25 AM ET-14.714
Projected value at 6:54 AM ET0.592966
Actual value at 6:54 AM ET-2.89479
Projected change across the window+15.307
Actual change across the window+11.8192
Bars moving the same direction20 of 29
Bars on the projected side of the opening reading29 of 30
Projected move relative to actual1.30×

Reading this window

The projection called for MACD to rise across the window, and it rose. The projection overshot: it called for 1.30 times the distance the market actually travelled. Bar to bar, 69% of the moves ran the same way as the projection, and 29 of the 30 bars finished on the projected side of the opening reading. One window is a single observation, not a pattern; it is published here so the projection and the outcome can be checked against each other.

How the window developed

The two paths were closest at bar 12 (6:36 AM ET), where they sat 0.00246608 apart, and furthest at bar 0 (6:25 AM ET) with a gap of 11.18. The largest single-bar change in the recorded values came at bar 10 (6:35 AM ET), a move of +2.10738. The projected and recorded paths crossed at least once inside the window.

Bar-by-bar read-out

Six points sampled across the 30 bars, showing the projected value, the value that printed, and the difference between them.

BarTime (ET)ProjectedRecordedDifference
16:26 AM-3.2754-14.2075-10.9321
66:31 AM-2.10086-10.0356-7.93473
126:37 AM-1.152830.672024+1.82485
186:43 AM-0.25541-0.201951+0.0534585
246:49 AM0.387581-0.0977528-0.485334
296:54 AM0.592966-2.89479-3.48776

About MACD on a 1-minute chart

MACD tracks the distance between two exponential moving averages of price; the line above moves as that distance widens or narrows. On the 1-minute timeframe a 30-bar projection covers 30 minutes of trading, so the window above describes 30 minutes of Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 activity rather than a single print.

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Trading involves risk. Past performance and model projections do not guarantee future results. This page is a record of one closed window, published for educational reference, and is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any instrument.